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Analysis of the past 4 seasons Beijing auction

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发表于 2019-6-7 19:21:44 | 显示全部楼层 |阅读模式
By Shouyuan.

The following part is a simply analysis of 2019 Beijing Spring Auctions, The general performance is better than 2018 Autumn one. The market price is as good as 2019 March Hong Kong auctions, and it is higher than the Beijing Market 2 years ago.

1, 保利/Poly

Because Poly is a comprehensive auction company, it is not so focus on numismatic. The total amount and the close rate both increased just a little bit because of the improvement of the whole market. Poly numismatic auction is one day, the most powerful part is ancient and sycee.

Top 50: http://data.shouxi.com/auction_s ... =&per_page=50&o_p=2

2, 诚轩/Chengxuan

Chengxuan has 15 years history. The most famous and the highest active part is numismatic, especially vintage, whch has sold a lot of big coins so far. The Spring Auction performance is similar with the last autumn, which most of cover coins were sold at very good price, but the banknotes was weak at this time, as the same as the other companies.

Top 50 coins: http://data.shouxi.com/auction_s ... &per_page=100&o_p=2

Top 50 syces: http://data.shouxi.com/auction_s ... =&o_p=2&per_page=50

Top 20 bknts: http://data.shouxi.com/auction_s ... al=&per_page=&o_p=2

3, 嘉德/Guardian

Guardian is the longest traditional auction company, with the famous sessions including Ma Dingxiang collections from 2005 - 2009. Guardian has a good performance based on a high quality ancient session, from a very young collector. Guardian always has some big coins and sessions.

Top 50 ancient: http://data.shouxi.com/auction_s ... =&o_p=2&per_page=50

Top 20 coins: http://data.shouxi.com/auction_s ... al=&per_page=&o_p=2

Top 20 sycee: http://data.shouxi.com/auction_s ... al=&per_page=&o_p=2

Top 20 bknts: http://data.shouxi.com/auction_s ... al=&per_page=&o_p=2

analysis.jpg

My point:

1, The banknote part reduces more seriously and the number of active collectors and dealers is less than before. The question is who teaches and trains the new collectors? The price of some big banknotes that have the property of a wind vane, is getting lower. It's a risk for all banknotes guys——how to save the market?

2, The modern coins is dying these years, so that there are no companies taking it as a big part. The price is getting lower and lower. On the other hand, with more and more coins being produced every year, who will buy these things? Collectors? I think the dealers will have more pressure.

3, The Sycee and Ancient parts are more like a inside game, that dealers play a very important role. How to remove the worries of new face when they join the game? It needs more and more new generation dealers to join, by bringing new ideas and open-mind insight. Do things consciously. Helping this market is helping themselves.

4, More and more collectors and investors do on-site auctions depending on more and more easy information, which has brought more pressure to traditional dealers——to be or not to be in this complex market. It depends on how hard and smart you work. The business will be not as easy as before.

5, Whether you are a collector or a dealer, you have to be more patient, because this industry don't allow you to earn quick money, but more risk. For example, some big coins appeared when they were sold 1 or 2 years later, and the buyers always lose money, except for 20% service charge, the willing of new buyers maybe not so big.

6, The whole economic is not so good, but it is leading more investors focus on this industry. Compared to the painting and chinaware, numismatic is more standard and worth to trust. Numismatic includes expensive and cheap, so it is easy to be chosen and accepted by different people.

I believe numismatic industry will supply a wider space and more opportunities, which means more and more collectors will like it, more and more inventors will notice it, and more and more people will work for it. It will become more vivid in the future.

We, everyone in this industry, need to work much harder and much smarter.
藏无天长地久 珍惜曾经拥有 | SBP官方征集中国、亚洲钱币 | 亚高个人店铺 茉莉钱庄

Cell/Wechat: 139-1102-2008, Mail: zhoushouyuan@shouxi.com
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 楼主| 发表于 2019-6-7 23:30:22 | 显示全部楼层
There is a phenomenon need to notice that new buyers always creat many new deal price records before the improvement of the whole market.
藏无天长地久 珍惜曾经拥有 | SBP官方征集中国、亚洲钱币 | 亚高个人店铺 茉莉钱庄

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 楼主| 发表于 2019-6-7 23:56:51 | 显示全部楼层
Very generous commends and analysis.

Comment from Mr. Sang Guanyu, the general manager of Poly Stamps and Numismatic department.
藏无天长地久 珍惜曾经拥有 | SBP官方征集中国、亚洲钱币 | 亚高个人店铺 茉莉钱庄

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